Today unique moment when sun moon mars and ven all in pisces. This is rare but its bullish thats why no big selling came. BUT Pisces rules creates illusion so its all temporary.
Tonight dynamics may change when MARS change to Aries and tmrw venus does the same!
This usually means aggression and fight. Cant say who wins but it does create highs to some extent.
Trend reversal may happen next Mon n Tue if it works and then around 25 or 26 a bottom which will give oppor to buy possibly and if that works expect a high around March 4
Market seems to be resilient and if there is no signific selling dont knw who will buy. We can have these reversal dates to consider for now. MAY BE tmrw they rally till MON morning and then a bust follows for a few days 23 25
When we look from energy around Earth - we are in the weakest period or rather most volatile period just like Sept/Oct. Aqu/Pisc Sun till 20th March can create havoc and will surely make a big bottom around last week of Feb.
Since we focus on micro term as traders we overlook larger frames. I am for sure a micro trader and have been hooked for ignoring larger frames. This entire market rally was supported by Fed and now things will melt. Problem is we reach a very shaky period since few weeks ago when we had SUN JUPITER opposition on Jan 5th evening that influences market after about 2 to 3 weeks.
To worsen we had on 22nd Jan evening Sun squaring with Moon's Node that is like a sharp turn of energy at the elliptic wheel. It is like turning a motor car at 500 miles per hour on a narrow turn. This can kill most markets. Another negative on 25th Morning braked Mercury when it squared with Saturn.
On 26th and 29th.30th evenings Mercury does 45 deg with Ura, Plu & Ven, that can create more imbalance. THIS whole energy will explode begining tonight to 31st Jan when massive Jupiter opposes Plu that meet in polarity of cancer and capri. and this energy is extremely fear producing darkness, its impact is very long term for next decade, as Moon at perigee in Aqu will be at 0 deg with Aqu sun and same time Mer ingress Pisces and Ven goes direct and all this is extremely big energy exploding that can cause accidents, havoc and also meetings. resolutions and great shifts in mood, feelings and our view point to each other and to the economic turbulence. THIS PERIOD also has something to do with Govt's economic policies, taxation and their oppressive conduct worldwide more specially in the US for now while Jup is around Cancer.
Immediate Short term: As I wrote last week Monday's night slight change in mood and most like a bit of reversal or some shock. Then another change on Jan 29th night onwards till 31st Morning. So we have to watch Tue/Wed, then Thur and Fri.
My system shows 29, 30 as positive and then coming Mon at least.
SP ending the day in rally mode. Maybe the cit is to the down side. The pattern says 70% chance this rally fails without going above 1829.50 es. Then it is followed by a powerful down leg that easily takes out todays lows. This is what the pattern favors, so I am short 1 mini at 1824.
Now, before the next strong leg down materializes, we may see a day or so of drifty up and down price action. This is an abc pattern up so it will make a strong "a" wave up, followed by a "b" wave back down, and then one more strong leg up ( that stays below 1829.50 es.). So don't expect the powerful down leg to show up right away. It could, but usually a lot of digest time is needed before the next down leg shows up.
Conclusion: Odds favor this rally into the close is a correction and one more strong leg down should show up in the next day or two.
The Fed is pumping so much money to sustain this rally.
I had a down day today by many systems but it dint work unfortunately.
There was this Saturn 60 Pluto 8th early morning, which happened also on 26th Dec around that time it had caused a small crash.
THIS aspect was after 22 years and as they are 3, next one will be 21 Sept. They dont hv much importance on short term usually.
Sunday begins the New moon period as Moon will also be in Pisces. But it seems the opex week may turn out to be volatile but still in favor of bulls but I am not sure. I think we should see a dip on Monday even tho it may bounce again.
14th Thur could be very positive so if that is a high day, may be 11, 12, 13 are down days.
Usually new moon in Pisces, peaking at 251 pm cst monday, is bullish but that may not work necessarily as last Full Moon on 4th was supposed to mean negative but it turned out positive. Obviously when human intervention astro fails.
More important is Mars turn into Aries at early hour of 12th March Tuesday. That is critical as Mars rules Aries and same day morning moon goes into Aries which MAY create some down time for 12/13. If 14 is an up day we can be sure we are heading into a high around 19th.
SPX~ The SP has been printing 5 leggers up and 3 leggers down since the 1397.77 low. There was a good chance that would change at the 1531 peak, but a change did not occur ( or hasn't yet). First move down was a 3 legger to our target area of 1470's to 1480's. The actual low on SP es was 1481ish.
If the market wants to take a breather here, then 1481 low will be a:4 and what has followed is part of the B:4. ( When the B is complete, we will see another dip down to the 1480 area ( plus or minus) in the "C" wave). Often a wave 4 will print a double dip type pattern that may look similar to the fangs on a venomous snake.
But if the markets are in a hurry, then the 40 point impulsive run to 1524.50 es from the low will become a wave 1 of wave 5 up. We can guess here, or give the market a bit of time to tip it's hand.
The price action from 1531 top has all the classic movements/ear markes of a correctional W4 pattern. It is a 3 legger down and It hasn't broke below 1467spx. So we should expect a 5th wave up to unfold. And if 1485 is to remain the lowest point for our w4, we should expect out wave 5 to be average in strength and not a failure. 5th failures can happen at any time but they "always" happen if the wave 4 overlaps the wave 1, which is 1467spx in this case. So longer term the pattern remains bullish. Does that mean it shoots above the 1524.50 highs on Monday ?
Under one wave count the 1524.50 is a 5 legger wave 1 up (1of 5). Under this count that would make the drop to 1500 an abc w2, or an abc a:2. If it was a:2 that would make the pop back to 1520ish on Fri. the "B" wave ( b:2), or some part of it. That would allow for the c:2 to drop back down near the 1499 area again. Under this wave count, the C of 2 can go below 1498spx even tho it isn't likely. We should stay attentive to this wave count.
The other is if the wave 2 was completed at 1500ish low. That would suggest the wave 3 is underway. If it breaks above 1524.50, we pretty much know which (of the two most likely scenereo's) is taking place. It will hit the stops above 1524.50 and pop or gap up sharply, and then keep grinding higher and eventually achieve the 1567ish es H&S target. 1567es is H&S flip, 1576spx & 1574spx are Fib. projections. There are certainly many other ways to label the charts, but these are the most likely at this time.
we have an inverted H&S, so above 1524.50 now and we should go to 1567.25. The inv. H&S suggest 1524.50 is 1:5. There should be a spear waiting for the SP at 1567.25. That falls in between our last two big tops and is a great place for a flat pattern to die. Spear through the heart, but SP needs to trade above 1524.50 to trigger this projection.
Charts show a sure bullish pattern for now, they may jack it up to some new high Sun or Mon but going to 30/40 points at this stage is unrealistic but as things are they could.
Conversely Monday can also be a Key reversal day to go down at some point. If you look at daily ES futures it is a pattern called gartley that could work:
One straight line up from 31 DEC to 19 Feb and then one down leg and then one up of last 4 days.
Usually if this pattern works it is like an M with the last 4th leg extending down.