Friday, March 8, 2013

March 8 Friday what next

The slightly more bullish wave count would be if the high was 3 of a die tri and now going up in the wave 5 of die tri. Then back to 1530's
 

Unending rally March 8 - 15

The Fed is pumping so much money to sustain this rally.
I had a down day today by many systems but it dint work unfortunately.
There was this Saturn 60 Pluto 8th early morning, which happened also on 26th Dec around that time it had caused a small crash.
THIS aspect was after 22 years and as they are 3, next one will be 21 Sept. They dont hv much importance on short term usually.

Sunday begins the New moon period as Moon will also be in Pisces. But it seems the opex week may turn out to be volatile but still in favor of bulls but I am not sure. I think we should see a dip on Monday even tho it may bounce again.
14th Thur could be very positive so if that is a high day, may be 11, 12, 13 are down days.
Usually new moon in Pisces, peaking at  251 pm cst monday,  is bullish but that may not work necessarily as last Full Moon on 4th was supposed to mean negative but it turned out positive. Obviously when human intervention astro fails. 
More important is Mars turn into Aries at early hour of 12th March Tuesday. That is critical as Mars rules Aries and same day morning moon goes into Aries which MAY create some down time for 12/13. If 14 is an up day we can be sure we are heading into a high around 19th.

Monday, March 4, 2013

March 4 2013 Monday

SPX~ The SP has been printing 5 leggers up and 3 leggers down since the 1397.77 low. There was a good chance that would change at the 1531 peak, but a change did not occur ( or hasn't yet). First move down was a 3 legger to our target area of 1470's to 1480's. The actual low on SP es was 1481ish.

If the market wants to take a breather here, then 1481 low will be a:4 and what has followed is part of the B:4. ( When the B is complete, we will see another dip down to the 1480 area ( plus or minus) in the "C" wave). Often a wave 4 will print a double dip type pattern that may look similar to the fangs on a venomous snake.

But if the markets are in a hurry, then the 40 point impulsive run to 1524.50 es from the low will become a wave 1 of wave 5 up. We can guess here, or give the market a bit of time to tip it's hand.

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Analyzing futures trading March 3 to March 8

The price action from 1531 top has all the classic movements/ear markes of a correctional W4 pattern. It is a 3 legger down and It hasn't broke below 1467spx. So we should expect a 5th wave up to unfold. And if 1485 is to remain the lowest point for our w4, we should expect out wave 5 to be average in strength and not a failure. 5th failures can happen at any time but they "always" happen if the wave 4 overlaps the wave 1, which is 1467spx in this case. So longer term the pattern remains bullish. Does that mean it shoots above the 1524.50 highs on Monday ?
Under one wave count the 1524.50 is a 5 legger wave 1 up (1of 5). Under this count that would make the drop to 1500 an abc w2, or an abc a:2. If it was a:2 that would make the pop back to 1520ish on Fri. the "B" wave ( b:2), or some part of it. That would allow for the c:2 to drop back down near the 1499 area again. Under this wave count, the C of 2 can go below 1498spx even tho it isn't likely. We should stay attentive to this wave count.
 The other is if the wave 2 was completed at 1500ish low. That would suggest the wave 3 is underway. If it breaks above 1524.50, we pretty much know which (of the two most likely scenereo's) is taking place. It will hit the stops above 1524.50 and pop or gap up sharply, and then keep grinding higher and eventually achieve the 1567ish es H&S target. 1567es is H&S flip, 1576spx & 1574spx are Fib. projections. There are certainly many other ways to label the charts, but these are the most likely at this time.

Friday, March 1, 2013

we have an inverted H&S, so above 1524.50 now and we should go to 1567.25. The inv. H&S suggest 1524.50 is 1:5.  There should be a spear waiting for the SP at 1567.25.  That falls in between our last two big tops and is a great place for a flat pattern to die. Spear through the heart, but SP needs to trade above 1524.50 to trigger this projection.

Charts show a sure bullish pattern for now, they may jack it up to some new high Sun or Mon but going to 30/40 points at this stage is unrealistic but as things are they could.
 
Conversely Monday can also be a Key reversal day to go down at some point.  If you look at daily ES futures it is a pattern called gartley that could work:

One straight line up from 31 DEC to 19 Feb and then one down leg and then one up of last 4 days.
Usually if this pattern works it is like an M with the last 4th leg extending down.

March 1 2013

Wave count offers so many possibilities it is difficult to pick the right one. At this point it is a guess. If astro is to believed however, the best fit might be~~ first 1524.50es high is a:B and yesterdays high of 1524.50es is c:B. Now in C wave down that bottoms on Monday and gives us a big low to buy. If this is correct, this is a big abc wave 4 down from 1531ish top and that suggest we will get a wave 5 up to new highs. Astro also says to watch for a big top in early May. Then down for the rest of the year. And 2014 is to be down year as well.

{Not sure how important this is but, wave "a" up from 1343.34 = 104.66pts. so 1.5 X "A" = 157 pts. So "c" = 1.5 X "a" at 1554.76 spx. A flat correction in a perfect world would end at 1553.11 spx.}
If our wave 5 up is to go that high, then buying at 1485 + or - could be a nice trade. When this 5th wave up is complete at 15__?, it will also complete an abcx-abcde pattern. The sell off from such a pattern projects back down to 666 area + or - , starting with a brand new abc type pattern down. If this expected high hits in early May, then, as Gann would say, price & time come together, & flat pattern as well.
If we make 1 tiny tiny tiny change to this sell off from 1531spx high~~~ try this, what do you see?
If we look at the pattern down from 1531spx, and raised the first 1526ish spx high 7 points to 1533, what do we see? The same basic pattern ( weekly or monthly) from 2000 to now. Now let me ask, from 1531 high, have we been in a bearish phase or has this corection been a bullish phase? The exact same thing is true on the pattern from 2000 high until now. I would call the legs up to 1524.50 es bullish legs within a bear correction. I call the leg up to 1570 ish high 2007 exactly the same thing. I also call this current leg up exactly the same thing. A bullish leg within a bearish correction. Our leg up from 666 can be compared with yesterdays leg up from1485spx to 1525ish top. So call it what you will, but recognize the price action from 2000 high is a bear correction, the same as the sell off from 1531 is. If you print them both out on paper, overlay them, and hold them to a light it becomes obvious. The structure of the pattern within each leg is different, but they are both bear patterns. The pattern of this leg going up from 666 low is far, far, far more bearish than our impulse leg going up to 1525ish yesterday.