Saturday, March 2, 2013

Analyzing futures trading March 3 to March 8

The price action from 1531 top has all the classic movements/ear markes of a correctional W4 pattern. It is a 3 legger down and It hasn't broke below 1467spx. So we should expect a 5th wave up to unfold. And if 1485 is to remain the lowest point for our w4, we should expect out wave 5 to be average in strength and not a failure. 5th failures can happen at any time but they "always" happen if the wave 4 overlaps the wave 1, which is 1467spx in this case. So longer term the pattern remains bullish. Does that mean it shoots above the 1524.50 highs on Monday ?
Under one wave count the 1524.50 is a 5 legger wave 1 up (1of 5). Under this count that would make the drop to 1500 an abc w2, or an abc a:2. If it was a:2 that would make the pop back to 1520ish on Fri. the "B" wave ( b:2), or some part of it. That would allow for the c:2 to drop back down near the 1499 area again. Under this wave count, the C of 2 can go below 1498spx even tho it isn't likely. We should stay attentive to this wave count.
 The other is if the wave 2 was completed at 1500ish low. That would suggest the wave 3 is underway. If it breaks above 1524.50, we pretty much know which (of the two most likely scenereo's) is taking place. It will hit the stops above 1524.50 and pop or gap up sharply, and then keep grinding higher and eventually achieve the 1567ish es H&S target. 1567es is H&S flip, 1576spx & 1574spx are Fib. projections. There are certainly many other ways to label the charts, but these are the most likely at this time.

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